Turkish Journal of Geriatrics 2017 , Vol 20, Issue 4
PREDICTING THE 28-DAY MORTALITY RATE IN ELDERLY PATIENTS WITH COMMUNITYACQUIRED PNEUMONIA: EVALUATION OF 11 RISK PREDICTION SCORES
Hüseyin ELBİ1, Adnan BİLGE2, Halil İbrahim DAYANGAÇ2, Onur DİKMEN2
1Department of Family Medicine Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Medicine MANİSA
2Department of Emergency Medicine Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Medicine MANİSA
Introduction: Community-acquired pneumonia frequently causes infectious diseaserelated morbidity and mortality among patients. Elderly patients are at a higher risk of developing severe Community-acquired pneumonia due to underlying diseases and changes in health status. We evaluated the performance of existing risk scores for predicting the 28- day mortality rate in elderly patients presenting with Community-acquired pneumonia to Emergency Department.

Materials and Method: We evaluated 151 elderly patients [mean age, 76.6±7.8 years (range, 65–94 years); 65.6% men] with Community-acquired pneumonia. There were 30 deaths by day 28, with an all-cause mortality rate of 19.9%. All scores, except the CAP-PIRO, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.700. Z-test was used to determine significant differences between the scores.

Results: We evaluated 151 elderly patients [mean age, 76.6±7.8 years (range, 65–94 years); 65.6% men] with Community-acquired pneumonia. There were 30 deaths by day 28, with an all-cause mortality rate of 19.9%. All scores, except the CAP-PIRO, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.700. Z-test was used to determine significant differences between the scores.

Conclusion: Of the existing scores, 4 had good discriminatory power to predict the 28- day mortality rate. The best discrimination was demonstrated by CURB-age, a score designed for elderly patients with Community-acquired pneumonia. Additional research is necessary to determine the best risk score for predicting early mortality rates in elderly patients with Community-acquired pneumonia. Keywords : Aged; Pneumonia; Mortality